Normal Distributions are Distributed Normally

Normal Distributions are Distributed Normally

If you have enough people or samples in any set of data, when measuring a variable it will always take on the characteristics of a Normal Distribution. What does that mean? Think Bell Curve.

I know everyone hates that thing, but it really does serve a purpose. Let's talk about test scores:

In a class of 60 students there is an average for the test score (out of a max of 100%) of say 75%. And there is a Standard Deviation of 8%. So if you look at a bell curve, 68% of the class would score between 83% (75% + 8%) and 67% (75% - 8%). This range of 67% to 83% is the distance from one standard deviation less than the average to one standard deviation greater than the average.

Most of the class average 68% will lie in the above range.

Two standard deviations away from the mean is...

59% to 92%: which means that 95% of the class scores between these two scores. Which makes a lot of sense if the teacher gave a fair test.

However it is unlikely very many people will score above 99% or bellow 51% on the test (3 standard deviations). In fact only about 2% of the class will get a score out side of the three standard deviation range.

So, what does this mean? Look at your GMAT scores for business school. Each time a test is administered, there is a sample of scores. So, on the day I took my GMAT I got a 610. There I no way to know what that means relative to everyone that has ever taken the GMAT, because there are differences and abnormalities from test year / month to the next test year / month.

How do schools help decipher your score? They use the percentiles. Every single time the percentile is understood to mean the same thing. How many people scored less than you did on the test? Based on YOUR sample. I scored 610. What does that mean? I was in the 92 percentile. So 92% of the people taking the test, around the same time as I did, scored less than I did.

This number 92% actually mean something. Some people say... I got a 610 too, but that is irrelevant. If they scored in the 70% percentile they technically did worse, because more people did better than they did.

Why Craps Will Always Beat You

Statistically, it is impossible to obtain the expected average rolling one die .

Probability of rolling a “1” is 1 x 1/6
Probability of rolling a “2” is 2 x 1/6
Probability of rolling a “3” is 3 x 1/6…

If you multiply the probabilities of rolling all six sides together and add the results the expected average is 3.5(an impossible number to roll).

BUT… if you roll two dice the expected average is “7”, statistically you will roll a “7” more than any other number… why is this important?

Las Vegas has perfected this Statistical truth in a very popular casino game. Craps.

Rules of Craps – Copied and Pasted from Wikipedia:

“First, the shooter makes a "come-out roll" (First roll) with the intention of establishing a point. If the shooter's come-out roll is a 2, 3 or 12, it is called "craps" (the shooter is said to "crap out"), and the round ends with players losing their pass line bets.

“A come-out roll of 7 or 11 is called a "natural," resulting in a win for pass line bets.

“Either way, the come-out roll continues for the same shooter until a point is established. If the point numbers 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10 are rolled on the come-out, this number becomes the "point" and the come-out roll is now over. The dealers will move an "On" button to the point number which identifies the point number to all players at the table. The shooter now continues rolling for either the point number or a seven. If the shooter is successful in rolling the point number, the result is a win for the pass line. If the shooter rolls a seven (called a "seven-out"), the pass line loses. A seven-out ends the round with the dice being passed clockwise to the next player who wishes to become the new shooter.”


Dice Roll Possible Dice Combination
Roll a 2 : 1-1
Roll a 3 : 1-2, 2-1
Roll a 4 : 1-3, 2-2, 3-1
Roll a 5 : 1-4, 2-3, 3-2, 4-1
Roll a 6 : 1-5, 2-4, 3-3, 4-2, 5-1
Roll a 7 : 1-6, 2-5, 3-4, 4-3, 5-2, 6-1
Roll a 8 : 2-6, 3-5, 4-4, 5-3, 6-2
Roll a 9 : 3-6, 4-5, 5-4, 6-3
Roll a 10: 4-6, 5-5, 6-4
Roll a 11: 5-6, 6-5
Roll a 12: 6-6

Rolling a 2, 3, or 12 to “crap out” is very unlikely, where as rolling a “natural” ( 7 or 11) is much more likely.

If you roll a point: 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10 on the “come-out roll” then you are much much more likely to roll a 7 than one of those point numbers again.

So the Casino has the probability of winning on its side with this game. As our professor says, “no matter how many times the cute cocktail waitress blows on the dice or how many times you beg for new shoes, you can’t beat the statistical truth of the game.”

Interesting that this highly “unwinnable” game is one of the most popular in casinos.

“Las Vegas’ goal is to take all of your money while making you think you had a great time while they did it”.

MGT 6120 Day One

Yesterday was the first day of school in quite a while. Due to snagging the parking decal over lunch I was able to park and walk right into the building. I would be lying if I said that it wasn’t a very exciting time for me.

Dr. Turner was very open about her intentions for the class and about her experiences teaching Evening MBA students. We went over the syllabus for the class including the break down of the assignments. Ultimately, my thoughts currently reflect my original beliefs when I enrolled. It will be a big time commitment to do this MBA, but I believe it is very doable with the right attitude and lack of procrastination.

First day, we went over basic “undergraduate type” accounting; debits (DR) on the left and credits (CR) on the right. We talked about how not all assets are good assets (sometimes accounts receivable aren’t paid in full). Assets are listed on the balance sheet at the price paid for them, so they aren’t always an accurate sampling of current value. We went through the basic accounting formula:

Assets = Liabilities + Stockholders Equity:

We reviewed T-Charts to record the journal entries. Keeping in mind Debits on the left. Debits and Credits have different functions depending on which side of the equation they fall on.

Assets increase with DR and decrease with CR; so when you pay cash to compensate an employee salary there is two transactions for every journal entry., you Credit your cash and Debit Salary Expense.

Liabilities and Stockholders Equity increase with Credits. Two things are affected every journal entry, just have to figure out which two things.

This was basic day one material. We will not meet next week due to MLK Day, so there is three chapters of reading in the next two weeks.

Avatar at Phipps Plaza AMC

Lindsay and I went to see Avatar this Sunday. We looked at the show times and decided upon the 3:30 movie, since there was only 3:30 and 7ish. We had just enough time to leave our place, go to the gym, the mall, get food, and walked into the movie right as the show was starting. Everything was perfect.

We made it through 2 hours and fifteen minutes of the movie when someone passed out and they stopped the move, only to NEVER start it again. AMC gave us the shaft, we got through 2/3 of the movie (which I wasn't entertained) and never saw what happened at the end. They gave us free passes to see the movie again at a later time.

In this day and age, it is very hard to find the time to go to a three hour movie and transportation and get there early to get a seat. Needless to say I am pretty upset. I don't want to go to an AMC ever again. Very frustrating.

Lindsay and I rushed and never got to see the end, next weekend now we have to take our tickets and see the movie again, or more than likely, we will go to a better movie.

Dear James Cameron, I BEG YOU, please make a movie less than three hours long... this is a pattern, Titanic, Avatar, and the Terminator movies...

Treacherous Weather in Atlanta

Thursday of last week, I took my lunch break to go and get my Georgia Tech Identification Card. I drove the 15 minutes over to the campus and parked in a meter spot. Went inside filled out the little form and got my picture taken. Really it only took about 10 minutes total for the entire process.

It was pretty easy all around.

The other half of the experience, transportation wasn't quite as easy. Due to inclimate weather in Atlanta, most of the state was shut down because of ice on the roads...

The state of Georgia closed it's school systems on the Friday, and according to the website they were going to open on Friday at noon. So, I braved the bad weather and went to work with the plan that I would be able to take my lunch and drive there to get my parking decal. I got there and they decided to close the entire day, so really I drove in treacherous conditions but to no avail as the parking place was not opened.

So, I am hoping today I have time to get my decal at lunch before my class starts today at six o'clock.

BuzzCard: $0.00
Evening and Weekend Parking Pass: $185.00

Project 2: A Painted Desk for School

So, to keep the trend from this previous post about painting furniture to bring it into a modern era, so to speak, I have another project to show.

I found this older Pier One Imports desk and chair on the side of the road. It was in pretty rough shape with lots of dings and dents and no hardware to be found. I knew immediately that it was a perfect chance to have the desk I need for school. Similar to the previous furniture painting adventure, I had to first decide on a color. I wanted something bright and I saw a piece of furniture at a little store near where I live that has an entertainment center in a mustard yellow that I really like.

With the help of Home Depot, I chose a new piece of hardware and a nice yellow color that Lindsay spotted in a flash. After a nice bout of sanding and priming, I was able to paint the furniture a beautiful mustard yellow and it only took three coats (instead of the five required by the previous rolling bar).

A finished final desk to do my studies

I am glad that I decided to go with the yellow, I really love earth tones and this yellow ads a splash of much needed color to my living room.

Spring 2010 Admissions Standards

At Orientation one of the first things the speaker went over was the class profile for the incoming class. The admissions standards for previous terms I posted about here. I discussed my qualifications for MBA admissions here.

This is the 2nd Semester of the 3rd year the Evening Program has been in existence. When I went to the Information Session Paula told us that ideally there would maximize at 90 students for this Semester. Interestingly, there are only 56 incoming students. I would like to contribute this slightly lower number to the program being a little more selective. Honestly, I am excited about a more intimate class, as I have heard bad things about other programs that are much larger.

The breakdown for the Spring 2010 class is as follows:

56 Total Incoming Students (there is now 295 students in the Evening program)

Demographics

26% Women
22% Minorities
7% International

Background

41% Engineering
34% Business and Economics
16% Social Science and Humanities
8% Math and Physics

Education and Test Score Average

GMAT: 622
GPA: 3.3
Work Experience: 5+
Age: 30

So, there you go, the 2010 Spring Semester incoming class demographics.

Live Orientation Tweetcast

While attending orientation yesterday I decided on the fly to do an Orientation Tweetcast live from Georgia Tech. Enjoy:

Got a nice little wind breaker material GT messenger style bag, a binder, a name tag and a name text to start the day.about 21 hours ago from Echofon

Swag http://twitpic.com/wxltsabout 21 hours ago from Echofon

Mandatory "prison style" head shot with name tent so everyone knows who we areabout 21 hours ago from Echofon

Interesting mix of students. About 10 over 40 yo, about 20 females, the rest male, varying age range. About 80 students here at the start.about 20 hours ago from Echofon

Peter Severa, Assistant Director of Graduate Programs, welcomes us to the program. Picture book, grad students... Ect....about 20 hours ago from Echofon

Quick overview of everyone in the department... Including some nice photos on the PowerPoint.about 20 hours ago from Echofon

Steve Salibu, dean, very charismaticabout 20 hours ago from Echofon

SS is a Business Ethicist. Good talk about character.about 20 hours ago from Echofon

SS on procrastination: "doing work is less painful than not doing the work"about 20 hours ago from Echofon

SS is "a lazy person trapped in a type A personality" bad comboabout 20 hours ago from Echofon

Registration information for a while...about 20 hours ago from Echofon

I should have eaten lunch... Wow, dragging.about 19 hours ago from Echofon

Thanks iPhone, I registered for class during orientation.about 19 hours ago from Echofon

Food! Lunch break!about 19 hours ago from Echofon

Only thing I see to walk to is arby's a jr. chx sandwich for me, I'll report back in an hour, it is unapproved fast foodabout 19 hours ago from Echofon

Jody Becker, Career Services, talking about opportunity as we advance in our career.about 18 hours ago from Echofon

Thanks Twitter for advancing my social networking, I met @Emmett_mc in person todayabout 18 hours ago from Echofon

Companies who made most offers to recent MBA grads: AT&T, Delta, BoA, and US Airways. Stat: 80% full time MBA grads got offers in 90 daysabout 18 hours ago from Echofon

@danfiru thanks, thought it is something that could be entertaing for meabout 18 hours ago from Echofon in reply to danfiru

Next up: CIBER & International Practicum associate director, Jim Hoadley.about 18 hours ago from Echofon

CIBER connects MBA students with another international student overseas, 4 telecommuting, spring semster trip to said country. ie Japanabout 18 hours ago from Echofon

Evening MBA faculty panel about expectations in the classroom.about 18 hours ago from Echofon

Evening professors: Clarke, Turner, Subramanian and Bond. All brought interesting perspectives on teaching MBA evening students.about 17 hours ago from Echofon

Another break, good timing, unapproved fastfood always a dealbreakerabout 17 hours ago from Echofon

Student Body for evening students speaks, Graduate Evening Management Students (GEMS) explains its rollabout 17 hours ago from Echofon

A student panel discussion. Some real over achievers! Cool mix: IBM, Home Depot, a guy who started his own business with another student.about 17 hours ago from Echofon

Yeah, I asked a question, shoot me! "How many hours outside of class on average do you spend preparing for each class?" Estimate 6-8! Doableabout 16 hours ago from Echofon

Key from current students in evening program, Network Network Network!about 16 hours ago from Echofon

Interesting, a current student is a DJ for an ATL rapper, he is here bc he invented a new type of turntable and wants to take it to market.about 16 hours ago from Echofon

Shameless plug for half.com and amazon.com for a source to buy books cheaper than barnes & noble ga tech book storeabout 16 hours ago from Echofon

Wrapping up orientation, need to get parking permit and buzzcard by the end of the weekabout 16 hours ago from Echofon

Had a cocktail met some awesome people, now off to see @murphface have dinner with @lindsaycmorganabout 15 hours ago from Echofon


That is it, a quick and dirty tweetable version of the Evening MBA Orienation, brought to you January 6, 2009, live from the classroom.